ABSTRACT
Estimating key aspects of transmission is crucial in infectious disease control. Serial intervals - the time between symptom onset in an infector and infectee - are fundamental, and help to define rates of transmission, estimates of reproductive numbers, and vaccination levels needed to prevent transmission. However, estimating the serial interval requires knowledge of individuals' contacts and exposures (who infected whom), which is typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We develop an alternate framework that uses virus sequences to inform who infected whom and thereby estimate serial intervals. The advantages are many-fold: virus sequences are often routinely collected to support epidemiological investigations and to monitor viral evolution. The genomic approach offers high resolution and cluster-specific estimates of the serial interval that are comparable with those obtained from contact tracing data. Our approach does not require contact tracing data, and can be used in large populations and over a range of time periods. We apply our techniques to SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from the first two waves of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia. We find that serial interval estimates vary between clusters, supporting the need to monitor this key parameter and use updated estimates in onward applications. Compared to an early published serial interval estimate, using cluster-specific serial intervals can cause estimates of the effective reproduction number Rt to vary by a factor of up to 2-3. We also find that serial intervals estimated in settings such as schools and meat processing/packing plants tend to be shorter than those estimated in healthcare facilities.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable DiseasesABSTRACT
BackgroundCOVID-19 has resulted in many infections in healthcare workers (HCWs) globally. We performed state-wide SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiological investigations to identify HCW transmission dynamics and provide recommendations to optimise healthcare system preparedness for future outbreaks. MethodsGenome sequencing was attempted on all COVID-19 cases in Victoria, Australia. We combined genomic and epidemiologic data to investigate the source of HCW infections across multiple healthcare facilities (HCFs) in the state. Phylogenetic analysis and fine-scale hierarchical clustering were performed for the entire Victorian dataset including community and healthcare cases. Facilities provided standardised epidemiological data and putative transmission links. FindingsBetween March and October 2020, approximately 1,240 HCW COVID-19 infection cases were identified; 765 are included here. Genomic sequencing was successful for 612 (80%) cases. Thirty-six investigations were undertaken across 12 HCFs. Genomic analysis revealed that multiple introductions of COVID-19 into facilities (31/36) were more common than single introductions (5/36). Major contributors to HCW acquisitions included mobility of staff and patients between wards and facilities, and characteristics and behaviours of individual patients including super-spreading events. Key limitations at the HCF level were identified. InterpretationGenomic epidemiological analyses enhanced understanding of HCW infections, revealing unsuspected clusters and transmission networks. Combined analysis of all HCWs and patients in a HCF should be conducted, supported by high rates of sequencing coverage for all cases in the population. Established systems for integrated genomic epidemiological investigations in healthcare settings will improve HCW safety in future pandemics. FundingThe Victorian Government, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, and the Medical Research Future Fund.